A record 7.7 million Texans have already cast their ballots ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, putting North Texas and its rapidly growing suburbs at the center of a closely watched political battle.
The record turnout comes after 12 days of early voting, with roughly one-third of the state’s voters expected to come from major counties surrounding Dallas and Fort Worth.
According to early voting data from Ryan Data and Research, Democratic primary voters hold an advantage of approximately 25,000 votes statewide heading into Election Day, an unusual position for Republicans in a state they have dominated for decades.
“It’s a historic election. I’ve been working in this business now for eighteen years and I’ve never seen a situation where Republicans are trailing like this as we go through the second week of early voting,” said Ross Hunt of Hunt Research during an appearance on NBC 5’s Lone Star Politics.
Despite the early voting numbers, Hunt said Republican incumbents, including Gov. Greg Abbott, are still likely to prevail if Republican voters turn out in large numbers on Election Day. However, he expects closer races than usual.
“We have seen historically in midterm elections, the party in power always experiences a backlash. And here in Texas, the Republican Party has been in power at every level of the ballot, for decades,” Hunt said.
Much of the attention is focused on the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs, where voter turnout and shifting demographics could influence the election’s outcome.
In Dallas County, Democratic primary voters have an advantage of nearly 170,000 votes following early voting.
Tarrant County also shows a Democratic advantage, with approximately 26,000 more Democratic primary voters casting ballots.
Collin County presents a different picture.
Turnout has already reached 49%, with Republican primary voters holding an advantage of approximately 15,000 votes. However, a substantial number of voters remain outside those two primary voting groups, making the county a key area to watch.
The county’s changing demographics, growing South Asian population and contentious local issues, including debates over mosque locations and a heated Frisco mayoral race, have contributed to heightened political attention.
The county has also drawn attention from statewide candidates. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running for the U.S. Senate, changed his campaign plans to hold an event Monday night aimed at encouraging supporters to vote.
Denton County is seeing a similar trend, with high turnout, a Republican primary-voter advantage, and a large group of voters whose preferences remain uncertain.
While early voting participation offers insight into voter engagement, primary voting history does not necessarily indicate how someone voted in the general election.
With millions of ballots already cast, the outcome of several closely watched Texas races could depend on who shows up Tuesday.
This story was originally reported for broadcast by NBC DFW. AI tools helped convert the story into a digital article, and an NBC DFW journalist edited it again before publication.
